How wrong are IMF GDP forecasts?

Each dot is one IMF forecast of real GDP growth with a verified later outcome. Dots to the right were too optimistic. Dots to the left were too pessimistic.

The X-axis uses a signed log scale. It compresses extreme misses while bringing small negative and positive errors closer together. The data is loaded with fetch("data.json").

Too pessimistic

Near zero

Too optimistic

Global reference

/ Selected value

Example forecasts:

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Reading the chart: the X-axis is forecast error in percentage points, calculated as forecast − actual. The dotted vertical line is the global mean or median. The solid line animates to the selected country or region’s mean or median. Same-year lines are red; later horizons are green.

Source: IMF WEO historical forecasts database, matched to the April 2026 WEO full dataset where the target year is marked as an actual outturn. The plot includes — verified forecasts and excludes — rows that could not be verified as actuals.